PSD crisis - Scenarios

The latest political statements made after the meeting of PSD’s Executive Committee (CEX), 14 June, 22.30 p.m.:

• PSD leader Liviu Dragnea announced that all PSD ministers resigned before the meeting. CEX has acknowledged prime minister Grindeanu’s announcement that he will also resign. PSD is ready to form a new cabinet. It will have a road map to make up for the delays in the implementation of the government’s program, quoted as the main reason why the ministers were assessed.

• ALDE leader Calin Popescu Tariceanu announced that the ALDE ministers resigned as well. A prime minister that has lost parliamentary support cannot execute his office and therefore must resign.

• After the press conference of the two leaders of the ruling coalition, prime minister Sorin Grindeanu has officially said that he would not resign. “I have a duty to behave responsibly for the sake of Romania and my party. This cabinet is the government of Romania, not of CEX. I will resign when president Iohannis, after consultations with the parliamentary, will name a new PSD prime minister.”

The current state of affairs:

• PSD si ALDE are now responsible for triggering a political crisis in Romania.

• The assessment of the cabinet was a clearly contrived issue, with just one purpose – to force out PM Grindeanu. The ruling coalition bet on the PM backing off, but he has shown more responsibility, consistency, and, in his speech of yesterday, leadership.

• Romania’s economic performance points to a flawed assessment of the cabinet ministers. According to the data shown by PM Grindeanu yesterday:

• RO is going through an economically auspicious time.

• The strongest economic growth in the EU: + 5,7%.

• Consumption growth: + 15,4%

• More than 110,000 new jobs

• One of the lowest unemployment rates: - 5,3%

• Investments of 1.3 bn. euros

• Booming exports: + 11.5% in Q1, the highest since 2012

• The assessment was conducted by a close associate of Liviu Dragnea, former minister of Finance Darius Valcov, who stands trial on corruption charges. Nobody knows who else was on the cabinet assessment commission. The ministers were not asked for their feedback. This is a unilateral act.

Developments/possible scenarios

• The situation of the cabinet members: According to the Government law, cabinet members submit their resignation to the PM, who acknowledges them, asks for feedback, and then forwards them to the President of Romania, who must sign the resignation decrees. The legal deadline is 15 days. At this time, Sorin Grindeanu is still expecting the formal resignations of his cabinet members. Anonymous sources have said that several ministers do not intend to resign. This Sunday, President Iohannis is to leave to Berlin for his official 3-day visit to Germany, where he is to meet chancellor Angela Merkel. He will then leave for Brussels at the European Council’s spring meeting. Iohannis will not be in the country for the entire next week, which will make resignation formalities more difficult. At the same time, PM Grindeanu cannot form a new cabinet by replacing the departing ministers because the political makeup of the government has changed (since ALDE has withdrawn their ministers). Therefore, the PM would need a vote in the Parliament to validate his new cabinet...

#crisis