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Upcoming parliamentary elections analysis. Political and economic perspectives

November 28, 2016

In brief

  • PSD leads in the latest public opinion surveys. Social-democrats could form the next parliamentary majority and the Government  alongside with ALDE

  • PSD chairman Liviu Dragnea will try to force the law and the President’s prerogatives in order to become Prime Minister

  • The chance of Dacian Ciolos’ office continuity depends on the high ballot turnout rate

  • Social-Democrats promise important taxation relaxation and incomes increases by almost 60%. Liberals respond with supporting a single 16% tax and prudential increase of incomes

  • No party has a sound and sustainable economic program for the next four years

  • Both PSD-ALDE and PNL-USR are in favour of over-taxing the large businesses in Romania

 

Vote intention for political parties

  • IRES survey (ordered by PSD, December 6-7): PSD – 44%, PNL – 23%,  USR – 7%, ALDE – 6%, PMP – 6%, UDMR – 5%. Vote intention – determined to vote 42%.

  • Kantar-TNS survey (ordered by USR, November 11-21): PSD – 40%, PNL – 18%, USR – 19%, ALDE – 7%, PMP – 7%, UDMR – 5%. Vote intention – determined to vote 55%.

Elections outcome. New parliamentary majority. Perspectives.

 

Scenario 1: Ballot turnout rate over 50%, suitable for right wing parties.

PNL and USR could obtain between 35 și 40% of votes together, which come from the direct vote for both parties and redistribution from other small parties which would not reach the 5%threshold. With a vote score of 40%, PNL-USR could manage to form the next parliamentary majority alongside PMP and UDMR. It will be, however, a fragile governing coalition, given the strong interests of the parties, and the conflictual nature of the PMP leader, Traian Basescu.

 

Scenario 2: Ballot turnout rate closer to 40%, suitable for left wing parties.

Traditional voters are the left wing supporters. As a result, a weaker ballot turnout would favor PSD and its political allies, such as ALDE. According to current surveys, PSD-ALDE would gain almost 50% of votes, which gives them the first chance to form the next parliamentary majority and to request the appointing of PSD candidate for the Prime Minister office…

 

Future Prime-Minister

According to the Constitution of Romania, the President of Romania designates a candidate for the Prime Minister office, following consultations with the party or political alliance which form the parliamentary majority of 50%+1 seats. Should there be no such majority agreed, then the President will hold consultations with all parliamentary parties. The candidate for the PM office will ask the Parliament, within 10 days since designation, the trust vote for the governing program and the ministers.  The Parliament’s vote require simple majority (50%+1).

 

For the Prime Minister office, there are two candidates for the moment...

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June 21, 2017

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